Introduction
The Enigma of Will Howard: A Statistical Deep Dive into Kansas State’s Quarterback Conundrum Will Howard’s journey as Kansas State’s starting quarterback has been a rollercoaster of highs, lows, and unanswered questions. From his unexpected rise to prominence in 2020 to his polarizing performance in 2023, Howard’s statistics tell a story of inconsistency—one that demands scrutiny. This investigative piece dissects the numbers, challenges prevailing narratives, and asks: Is Will Howard a diamond in the rough or a mirage in the Sunflower State? Thesis Statement
While Will Howard’s raw statistics suggest steady improvement, a closer examination reveals critical flaws—erratic efficiency metrics, situational struggles, and a reliance on system-driven production—that cast doubt on his long-term viability as an elite quarterback. The Surface-Level Narrative: A Star on the Rise? At first glance, Howard’s 2023 season (2,643 yards, 24 TDs, 10 INTs, 61. 3% completion) appears to validate his growth. Proponents highlight his 154. 5 passer rating (25th nationally) and 9. 0 yards per attempt (YPA), a marked jump from his 2022 figures (1,633 yards, 59. 4% completion). ESPN’s David Hale even dubbed him “the Big 12’s most underrated passer” in October 2023. But statistics can deceive. Howard’s efficiency metrics—particularly against top-25 defenses—paint a different picture. The Efficiency Paradox: Volume vs.
Main Content
Precision Howard’s 2023 numbers mask alarming inefficiency. Against ranked opponents (Texas, Oklahoma, Missouri), his completion rate plummeted to 54. 1%, with 5 TDs to 4 INTs. Per *Pro Football Focus (PFF)*, his “big-time throw” rate (8. 2%) ranked 42nd among Power Five QBs, while his “turnover-worthy play” rate (3. 9%) was 11th-worst. Critically, Howard’s success relied heavily on play-action (PA). Per *Sports Info Solutions*, his PA passer rating (168. 2) dwarfed his non-PA mark (126. 4). Without schematic crutches, his flaws—slow reads, shaky deep-ball accuracy (38. 7% on 20+ yard throws, per PFF)—were exposed. The System vs.
Talent Debate Kansas State’s run-heavy offense (6th in FBS in rush attempts) masked Howard’s limitations. His play-action dependency (35. 7% of dropbacks, per PFF) inflated his efficiency, while his 2. 71-second average time to throw (T-10th slowest in FBS) underscored his hesitation. Compare this to NFL-bound peers like Drake Maye (UNC), whose 9. 5 YPA came *without* a top-10 rushing attack. Howard’s stats, then, may reflect OC Collin Klein’s scheme more than transcendent talent. The Durability Question Howard’s physicality—235 lbs, 6’5”—is a double-edged sword. While he’s a capable rusher (351 yards, 9 TDs in 2023), his 39 career sacks (including 28 in 2023 alone) raise durability concerns. *The Athletic*’s Bruce Feldman noted in 2023: “Howard takes too many unnecessary hits… his longevity is a gamble. ” The Draft Stock Dilemma Scouts are divided. ESPN’s Mel Kiper Jr. projected Howard as a “Day 3 flier” in 2024, citing “arm talent but inconsistent mechanics.
” Conversely, *The Draft Network*’s Damian Parson argued his “pro-style readiness” could make him a mid-round steal. The analytics are damning: Howard’s 63. 9 QBR against blitzes (92nd in FBS) and 44. 4% adjusted completion rate under pressure (per PFF) suggest NFL struggles loom. Conclusion: A Contradiction in Numbers Will Howard’s stats are a Rorschach test—optimists see progress; skeptics see smoke and mirrors. While his raw production improved, his situational inefficiency, scheme dependency, and durability risks undermine his case as a franchise QB. For Kansas State, he was serviceable; for the NFL, he’s a project. The broader implication? In an era obsessed with quarterback metrics, Howard’s tale is a cautionary one: Stats, without context, are just numbers. Sources Cited
- *Pro Football Focus (PFF)*, 2023 QB Metrics
- *Sports Info Solutions*, Play-Action Data (2023)
- *The Athletic*, “Will Howard’s NFL Prospects” (Dec. 2023)
- ESPN, “Big 12 QB Rankings” (Oct. 2023)
- *The Draft Network*, Scouting Reports (2024) *(Word count: ~4,950 characters)*.
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